Randomness Quiz

INSTRUCTIONS:

On this test, the number of asterisks at the beginning of each question indicates what level of knowledge/difficulty each question assesses. Once an answer is chosen, a function is called which scores the question according to the following table:

Question
level		full
credit		partial
credit
level 3 = ***85
level 2 = **63
level 1 = *42

Scroll down to the first question below. Notice that to the left of the "c" button is a rectangular button called "hint". This indicates that you can click on that button to receive a hint about this question (not just the "C" choice). If the button is blank, there is no hint available for that question. If there is a hint avaliable for a question, and you use it before answering, one point is subtracted from the points above. Thus, if you are fairly confident of the answer, you should ignore the hint. But if you are uncertain of the answer, using the hint should help you earn more points in the long run.

Once you have decided on the best answer, click on the radio button to the left of the letter representing your answer. Then you can click on the "correct?" button to receive immediate feedback about whether you were correct, how many points you earned on that question, and an explanation of the correct reasoning. This information will be printed in the "white windows."

To the left of the explanation window, there may be a "link" button displayed. If so, you can jump to material directly related to the question content which you can review to solidify your understanding of the explanation. If the button is blank, there is no link.

You do NOT have to do the questions in order, and you can attempt any questions you wish.

Here are some short answer essay questions you should be able to answer:

Level 1:

  • What are two reasons why people have such a hard time responding in a random fashion:

    answer

    Level 3:

  • No baseball player since Ted Williams in the 1950's has finished the season with a batting average above .400. Suppose Joe Blow¹s average is .428 at the All Star break (season half-way point). Why would a baseball fan NOT be in error to say that Joe Blow is due for a long HITLESS streak which will pull his average below 400?

    answer

    • End of Quiz

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Problems:

    1. Because we have memories (for our past behaviors). We have to ignore our past in order to respond randomly.

    2. We really don't know what random means, and it is not taught to us in school. So we don't know how to act. Our misconceptions cause us to act 'badly.'

    3. we have preferences for certain behaviors, we have styles. We like to do things a certain way, and, unless we are exceptionally vigilant, it will be hard to suppress these preferences.
    4. the need for control feeds the illusion that we can control or predict chance events. To acknowledge a random world decreases our sense of power and prediction.
    5. In everyday experience, we may not encounter that many randomly determined events, or the random events are hidden from us.
    6. Finally, maybe our deterministic, cause-effect, thinking style keeps our minds from understanding the concept of randomness.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Hitless:

    Hitting above 400 is a very unusual event, so it is likely to regress to more typical levels over time. Thus, due to regression towards the mean, the average for the second half of the season will be less extreme than was the first half. This can only happen if Joe Blow has some hitless streaks. Although hitting a baseball is not a chance event, there is an element of chance along with a batter's skill level. During the first half of the season, there were probably more "lucky breaks" than normal, producing such an unusually high average. It is unlikely that the same abnormal level will occur in the second half.